#How create residuals after perron 1989 break test in eviews 9 series#
Emissions, concentrations, & temperature: a time series analysis. Polynomial cointegration tests of anthropogenic impact on global warming. Transient climate response estimated from radiative forcing and observed temperature change. Determination of Earth’s transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities from observations over the twentieth century: strong dependence on assumed forcing. Solar and greenhouse gas forcing and climate response in the twentieth century. Structural breaks with deterministic and stochastic trends. A time series analysis of the twentieth century climate simulations produced for the IPCC’s AR4. IPCC Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Tracking the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation through the last 8,000 years. Long-term natural variability and the twentieth century climate change. On the time-varying trend in global-mean surface temperature. Nonparametric nonlinear cotrending analysis, with an application to interest and inflation in the United States. A sequential procedure to determine the number of breaks in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component. Testing for shifts in trend with an integrated or stationary noise component. Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function under both the null and the alternative hypotheses. The great crash, the oil price shock, and the unit root hypothesis. A reply to ‘Does temperature contain a stochastic trend? Evaluating conflicting statistical results’. Global and hemispheric temperature revisited. Evidence for human influence on climate from hemispheric temperature relations. Multi-pattern fingerprint method for detection and attribution of climate change. We conclude that reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are effective in slowing the rate of warming in the short term.
Furthermore, we identify a contribution from the two world wars and the Great Depression to the documented cooling in the mid-twentieth century, through lower carbon dioxide emissions. Our statistical analysis suggests that the reduction in the emissions of ozone-depleting substances under the Montreal Protocol, as well as a reduction in methane emissions, contributed to the lower rate of warming since the 1990s. Our analyses also reveal a contribution of human interventions to two periods when global warming slowed down. We identify a pronounced increase in the growth rates of both temperatures and radiative forcing around 1960, which marks the onset of sustained global warming.
We show that long-term trends in total radiative forcing and temperatures have largely been determined by atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and modulated by other radiative factors. Here we analyse radiative forcing and temperature time series with state-of-the-art statistical methods to address this question without climate model simulations. However, the attribution of the observed warming to human activities remains less clear, particularly because of the apparent slow-down in warming since the late 1990s. The warming of the climate system is unequivocal as evidenced by an increase in global temperatures by 0.8 ☌ over the past century.
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